ID : N-5302 Date : 2019/05/01 - 14:31
(Persia Digest) - The oil embargo imposed on Iran has decreased the level of the country's influence on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and this is why Iranian authorities may revise the way they deal with the organization.
Reza Zandi, a Tehran-based journalist and oil analyst, wrote in a note published by Hamshahri newspaper that decision-makers are currently considering three scenarios.
The first scenario is Iran's suspension of its OPEC membership until all sanctions against the country are removed. The second scenario for the country is to abandon the organization while the third one suggests Tehran maintain its membership while trying at the same time to use all its existing capacities according to prevailing circumstances.
If Iran suspends its OPEC membership, what will happen in case OPEC ministers under pressure from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates decide to fire those members whose membership has been suspended for more than six months? In that case, it would not be pleasant for Iran to be fired from an organization of which it has been a co-founder. Therefore, suspending its membership is not an acceptable option.
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Without a doubt, at a time when Iran is under oil sanctions, Iranian authorities cannot play a significant role in OPEC decision-making processes except by expressing their expert views. In OPEC, the number of oil barrels produced and exported by each member is the backbone of its minister and his word. What is the advantage of Iran's exit from OPEC? One advantage is that Iran can protest loudly against Saudi Arabia and the UAE. But in that case won't they be able to implement their oil policies more easily or use OPEC to show Iran's isolation?
In my opinion, to act patiently, logically and authoritatively can be a good pattern for maintaining presence in one of the most influential organizations of Third World countries.
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Iran can remain in OPEC and make its views heard by world public opinion and mass media. It is true that we cannot affect OPEC decisions for a while, but can adopt our position based on logic and authority and get the world to hear us. Any move leading Iran towards isolation is what Saudi Arabia, UAE and their bullying partner - USA want us to do. We are a host in OPEC and should not let others take over our home.
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