(Persia Digest) – An international affairs expert in Tehran believes: “The deployment of a US carrier to the Persian Gulf confirms their “war show” for Iran. It is more than a threat and on the threshold of an attack. Although it does not mean a definite military engagement, it increases the danger significantly.”
The WH security advisor, John Bolton, has announced that the USS Abraham Lincoln and bombers will be deployed to the CENTCOM region as a clear message to Iran that any attack on this country and its allies will be met with relentless force.
International affairs expert, Dr Mahdi Motaharnia, told Persia Digest (PD) in an interview: “Basically, the deployment of an aircraft carrier by the United States to its targeted areas changes the "threat" of a military strike to "display" of a military strike. In the past, this country had two stages in its military doctrine – threat and attack. But in recent years, with the surveillance it has attained, especially in the ME, it has created a middle ground in its doctrine which is the “display” of military strike. This is higher than a threat and just below an attack.”
He reminded: “The deployment of USS Abraham Lincoln carrier is assessed as a “display” of attack rather than a “threat” to do so. This is a clear declaration by the US that it is planning a military engagement. We are now witnessing the zenith of a psychological warfare on the part of the US against Iran. Therefore, if the IR of Iran creates the smallest challenge for the US, it must expect a military strike.”
This university professor stressed: “Nevertheless, the recent US actions are not a sign of its decision for a definite strike on Iran. We have now entered a period where the US will change its psychological warfare against Iran to field operations. The preparations have been made by putting the IRGC on the FTO list, a full oil boycott, and new sanctions.”
Motaharnia reiterated: “The Americans are trying to force Iran to the negotiating table within their 12-point preconditions with a display of their intent to strike.”
Commenting on some predictions of a direct conflict between Iran and the United States in the current year, he said: “As from 2018 onwards, Iran went from being a ‘challenge’ for the US to being an ‘enemy’. The US used the potentials of this challenge to its own benefit. But when Washington describes a country as an ‘enemy’, it no longer has any capacities for exploitation. Therefore, US officials take steps to elucidate their case with it. The prediction of war between the US and Iran from 2018 has gone from ‘possible’ to ‘probable’. Such an event is highly likely.”
He explained: “A possibility means something is far from happening and a probability implies the closes scenario of occurrence. With this explanation, a military toe to toe between the US and Iran is a probability.”
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