(Persia Digest) – A nuclear issues analyst in Tehran believes: “Iran’s problems with the West will not be resolved simply by taking a decision in the nuclear sector. It might even worsen the situation for Iranians.”
Following increased pressures applied by the US on Iran and the non-renewal of oil waivers, some sources believe that the Iranian government will reduce its nuclear commitments under the JCPOA. Details will be announced on 3 May which coincides with the unilateral withdrawal by the US from the JCPOA nuclear deal.
Hassan Beheshtipour is an analyst of nuclear issues in Tehran. He told Persia Digest (PD) in an interview: “It is not yet clear which JCPOA commitments will be specifically reduced by the Iranian government. Its impact on future relations with the EU, China, and Russia can only be discussed once this has been elucidated.”
He added: “Articles 26 and 36 of the JCOPA allow Iran to reciprocate in case the other party refuses to lift sanctions it committed to, but it does not clarify what these are.”
This global affairs expert reminded: “The simplest solutions are usually adopted in Iran. Currently, it has been decided to take measures in the nuclear field to revise the behavior of the other party. But this is only part of the solution. More precise measures must be taken to this end.”
Beheshtipour pointed to US sanctions against Iran, saying: “The US is anticipating unrest in Iran with increased pressures through sanctions ending in a collapse. Iranian authorities are fully aware of this policy. They must adopt a more comprehensive economic plan to neutralize the tools of pressure in American hands and show that Washington is wrong in its assessment. Obstacles in the Iranian banking system and dependence on oil is not linked to US sanctions and necessary steps must be taken to change this.”
He continued by saying: “The IR of Iran’s mainstay are its people. No country or power can replace the people. With a savings policy by all the three branches, NGOs, and the public sector, people must be made to feel that the authorities are alongside them under these difficult circumstances and are trying to abort US plans with correct planning. In reality, this is not how people feel right now.”
Beheshtipour reiterated: “Iran’s problems with the West will not be resolved simply by taking a decision in the nuclear sector. It might even worsen the situation for Iranians.”
Commenting on the probable reaction of other signatories to the JCPOA to Iran’s decision, this analyst said: “The EU has done nothing but make promises until now and it is not important if it is upset by the reduction of Iran’s commitments under the deal; but the views of China and Russia are important, because they trade with Iran extensively and this might lead to a cut in trade with them.”
Speaking about Iran’s possible withdrawal from the JCOPA and NPT, he said: “Iran is free to make such decisions, but I hope it will not come to that, because the price is too high. Before the JCPOA, 12 UNSC resolutions and six resolutions under Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter were ratified against Iran. The latter six resolutions will return if Iran leaves the JCPOA and NPT, creating new difficulties for this country. I do not believe Tehran intends to withdraw from the JCPOA.
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