(Persia Digest) – An analyst of international affairs in Tehran believes: “The US was the intended audience of the statement issued by the Iranian President. The EU and other JCPOA signatories are not capable of ending the sanctions on Iran’s oil and banking sectors. As such, there is not much reason to hope for desired results with a partial withdrawal from the JCPOA.”
Iran’s patience finally ran out today, on the first anniversary of the unilateral US withdrawal from the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal. It has suspended some of its obligations under the deal, including the limited storage of enriched uranium and heavy water. Iran has given sixty days to other JCPOA member countries to prepare the ground for Iranian interests under the deal; otherwise, it will also suspend some of its other commitments.
International affairs analyst in Tehran, Ali Bigdeli, told Persia Digest (PD) in an interview: “Sections 26, 27, 29, and 36 of the JCPOA allow one party to take steps if another party withdraws from the agreement by submitting their case to the UN in writing first. Therefore, the partial withdrawal of Iran from the JCPOA is not an abrogation of the deal.”
He added: “The important point here is that the Iranian President was addressing the US – the country who left the deal and wholly abrogated its commitments. The EU is also unable to implement the deal and safeguard Iran’s interests.”
This university professor reminded: “It's easy to increase uranium enrichment levels from 3.67% upwards; but the outcome must also be considered. In my view, Mr Rouhani proceeded in this manner under pressure from domestic public opinion and the opposition. But the EU may not accept these demands and, therefore, chances of reaching the desired results are very slim.”
Bigdeli reiterated: “If the European Union does not accept Iran’s conditions and Iran leaves the deal, the case will be returned to the UN Security Council and possibly Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter."
He continued by saying: “One year ago, before the US left the JCPOA, the Trump Administration had indicated the will to negotiate with Iran on many occasions. Tehran could have started talks with Washington at the time to see what Trump wanted. It can only be concluded that the JCPOA is dead and Iran must follow the path of negotiations with the EU instead of issuing statements.”
The international affairs analyst underlined: “The Iranian FM must begin extensive discussions with his European counterparts and perhaps increase the chances through them by making changes to the JCPOA if necessary. Otherwise, the statement by the Iranian President will not have a positive outcome.”
He added: “Withdrawing from the JCPOA is to Iran’s detriment entirely and will only benefit the US. In this case, all previous sanctions by the UNSC, the EU, the WH, and Congress will be reinstated. Only negotiations remain.”
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