Hurricane Milton 'surprise' US election: Here's why

the'Hurricane MiltonIt is currently Category 5, with wind speeds exceeding 280 km/h, according to American media It is the “October surprise” of the US electionsAt a time when the election campaign is going through a critical stage. Arriving on the Florida coast, less than a month before Election Day, It can have serious consequences not only for the affected population, but also for political dynamicsEspecially in the comparison between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

Testing for the Biden-Harris administration

With Hurricane Helen already causing devastation in Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, the federal government is under pressure to better manage emergency response. Biden and Harris' leadership has been tested, but with Milton threatening a devastating new influence, their role will be crucial in maintaining control of the situation, and thus voter confidence. Not surprisingly, Biden postponed the crucial Ramstein summit with countries supporting Ukraine so he could focus on the hurricane response.

Managing natural disasters can be a critical political test. As was the case with Obama during Hurricane Sandy in 2012, when the federal government's rapid response helped boost his electoral lead, Harris could play the same card. However, he faces stiff competition: Trump and other Republicans are preparing to exploit any shortcomings or delays in the hurricane response to criticize the Democratic administration.

Influences on voters and Trump's strategy

The areas most affected by Hurricanes Milton and Helen are among Republican strongholds, especially in Florida and North Carolina, two key electoral states. History shows that natural disasters can reduce voter turnout, especially in affected areas. This represents a potential disadvantage for Trump, who won these areas in 2020 thanks to strong support in rural and conservative areas. There will then be difficulty in administering the vote, as hundreds of thousands of displaced people face difficulty in going to the polls in their areas. In the United States, voting by mail (even early) is widespread, but involves a series of procedures (requesting a “ballot,” receiving it, and returning it) that can become complicated after disaster strikes.

However, Hurricane Milton could also provide a windfall for Trump if lower turnout hits Democratic areas harder. For example, Tampa, a majority Democratic city that could be seriously affected by the passage of a hurricane, risks seeing a decline in voter turnout, which indirectly favors the Republican candidate.

Misinformation and the Role of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).

Trump has already begun spreading accusations of incompetence regarding emergency management by Harris and Biden, suggesting that money from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the US civil protection agency, would have been diverted to other priorities, such as immigration and aid to hurricane victims. It won't be enough. Many of these allegations were denied by Republican figures, such as Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, who confirmed the continuation of dialogue with the White House to address the emergency.

Misinformation can play an important role in elections. Whatever happens, Trump will tell undecided voters that the Biden-Harris administration's response has been insufficient, exploiting the emotions and shocks caused by natural disasters to shift support in his favor.