EL NINO is back! Let’s see what it is and how it could affect the climate of 2023, also in Italy »ILMETEO.it

The return of El Nino 2023, what are its implications also for Italy?El Nino is officially back It is likely to produce extreme weather by the end of 2023, from tropical cyclones circling vulnerable Pacific islands to heavy rains in South America to drought in Australia.
After three years of a La Nina climate model, which often lowers global temperatures slightly, a warmer El Nino is back in action, according to a warning released Thursday, June 8, by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.

El Nino originates from the unusually warm waters of the eastern Pacific OceanOff the coast of South America, it is often accompanied by a slowdown or reversal of the easterly trade winds.
“In May, weak El Niño conditions appear with above-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific OceanGuidance said.

The last time El Niño occurred was in 2016The world experienced its hottest year on record. Besides global warming due to climate change, 2023 or 2024 could reach new highs.

Most experts turn to two agencies to confirm El Niño: NOAA and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). The two agencies use different metrics for declaring El Niño, with the Australian definition a little stricter.

there NOAA An El Nino call when ocean temperatures in the eastern and central tropical Pacific were 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) higher than normal for the previous month, and have persisted or are expected to continue for five more consecutive periods of three intervening months. The agency also notes weak trade winds and cloud cover.

there BOM extension Australia needs warmer temperatures, with major regions in the eastern Pacific Ocean being 0.8°C (1.5°F) warmer than average.
Tuesday, June 6, 2023, profAustralia has issued its own bulletinA. revealed 70% chance that El Nino will develop this year.

NOAA He said there is one 56% probability that when El Nino reaches its peak (usually during the northern hemisphere winter), It will be a powerful event, which means sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific are at least 1.5°C warmer than normal. This can produce more severe impacts, from droughts to hurricanes, all over the world.

Those of warmer waters near the west coast of South America are events in the eastern Pacific Ocean, such as the powerful El Nino of 1997-1998. Other highs are in the central Pacific Ocean near the equator around Hawaii, as was the case in the last event in 2015-16. Climate anomalies can be more severe depending on where the waters are warmer, making things drier or wetter in certain areas.

Some forecasting models predict this Central Pacific would be El Nino. This phenomenon can lead Effects also on the European climate and on ItalyAnd, in general, if it is not strongly affected by other climatic behavior indices, prefer aSummer is hotter than usualAnd But also rainy and windy sometimes As we were unfortunately able to see it in these first days of June. Unlike in winter, the presence of El Nino can cause changes in precipitation and temperatures. In general, southern Europe, including Italy, tends to have milder and rainier winters than usual.

But what will be the effects of El Nino on agriculture in the rest of the world?
first signs Hot and dry climate El Niño-induced droughts threaten food producers across Asia, while American farmers rely on heavy summer rains caused by the meteorological phenomenon to mitigate the effects of severe drought.

El Nino can lead to 34% decrease in winter crop production compared to standard heights Australiaand also has an effect on Palm oil and rice production in IndonesiaAnd Malaysia – which supplies 80% of the world’s palm oil – H Thailand. In India, a country that relies heavily on monsoon rains for its summer harvest, the effects of El Niño can be offset by the Indian Ocean Bipolar, or Indian El Niño, but less rain than normal is expected in the northwestern parts of the country.