The “La Nina” phenomenon is about to return, let's see how and when it can affect the Italian climate

The past few months have been characterized by the global climate phenomenon known as “El Nino”: Since June 2023, combined with human-caused global warming, it has caused record temperatures, both at sea level and at ocean level.

But this phenomenon is now ready to make way Summer season: As he pointed out Latest forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center (Cost per click) from NoahSince May 2024, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have been well below climatological averages over much of the tropical Pacific; This is an indication that another phenomenon is about to begin, a phenomenon known as No Nina.
A. points out Cooling surface water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean Which frequently affects the climate of our planet, with different consequences also in Europe and Italy where it can modify the planetary circulation of large atmospheric forms. The map below highlights negative anomalies (in blue) directly on the Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America.

Statistically, in light of this particular event we are witnessing a Increase in rainfall In the Southeast Asiain some partsAfricain Brazil (Where there are already some Terrible floods) and in Australia. At the same time, it involves significant drying phases Western AmericasIn the The Gulf Of Mexico And inNortheast Africa.
Not only, One of the most dangerous consequences of the La Niña phenomenon in the world is associated with the occurrence of storms in the Atlantic sector. In fact, it generates more favorable conditions for formation Tornadoes In the North Atlantic basin, in particular due to the weak wind gradient over the highlands and increased atmospheric instability. These conditions not only increase tornado numbers, but also encourage longer-lasting tornadoes, Which poses a greater risk of impact on American soil.

This type of phenomenon, previously limited only to the oceans, is also increasingly occurring in the Mediterranean Sea (Mediterranean hurricane), With potential consequences that concern Italy closely as well. The danger for our country is the occurrence of extreme events such as Storms In exceptional cases, what is called “Torrents“which usually affect narrow areas of land (as happened in Tuscany and Romagna in 2023, in Ischia and Marche in 2022 and in 2021 in Sicily, just to name a few), discharging large amounts of water into the ground.
a It is potentially a very serious condition. Concretely, in the coming months, according to the latest updates from Central Europe, we could see prolonged drought phases, however intermittent, due to these particularly severe storms.