The final results of the elections that took place on Sunday in Poland confirm this PiS is the leading party, but the opposition coalition led by former Prime Minister Donald Tusk is closer to 54%.. According to the data, the ruling Law and Justice Party obtained 35.4% of the votes. The second party is the Tusk Civic Party with 30.7%, followed by the Third Way Party with 14.4%, then the Left Party with 8.6%. In total, the pro-European coalition reaches 53.7%. The far-right Confederation Party came in last place with 7.2% of the votes.

This is the reason for the record turnout in Poland

The reasons that could explain the record turnout recorded in the Polish elections and the effects of the electoral result on EU politics are two topics addressed by political scientist Lorenzo Di Sio, Professor of Political Science at Luis University, Guido Carli and Director of the Italian Center for Electoral Studies (Cise) and Giovanni Orsina, Director of the Faculty of Referee at Luis University in Rome. “Not only is it the highest turnout since 1989, but right now, with almost half the divisions counted, the turnout is ten points higher than in those elections which were the first after the dictatorship and the communist regime, which marked a return to democracy.” “It would be an unprecedented result and a clear political signal,” says Di Sio, who believes there are several factors behind this number: “We have seen a very high remobilization. Just think that the turnout in the last elections was 62%, today the turnout has increased by more than 10%.” Points, which is a political fact that must be interpreted on the basis of the results of the ballot boxes and linked to the massive mobilization of the opposition, which also organized very important demonstrations in the streets.”

It is a signal that is also confirmed by, according to the assessment of Luis University political science professor Guido Carli, “the failure of the referendum: the government organized a referendum against a series of measures, many of which are linked to” European regulations. Yes, it was essentially a referendum to approve government actions on a line opposed to European integration, and this referendum failed in terms of turnout, which was around 40%. This means that about half of the voters had very clear ideas about voting for the political elections, but at the same time he decided not to withdraw the ballot in the referendum to make it fail since the quorum is 50%, as is the case in Italy.”

Other data stands out from “a study conducted by a university in Warsaw which indicates a greater participation of women not only compared to the past but also compared to men.” A factor that can be linked to specific issues. “In Poland, for example, there is very restrictive legislation on abortion and the opposition has promised to introduce liberalism – notes De Seu – and perhaps behind this high demand for abortion is a mobilization against the very conservative policies pursued by the government.” “In the Polish elections, the political struggle was very tough, and the paradox is that the very drift, the gradual decline of democracy in some countries, produced a reaction on the part of citizens – he continues – one of the main factors for mobilization is that the competition is intense and this represents a big difference compared to the last Italian elections where , after the failed alliance between the center-left and the Five Star Movement, the outcome was a foregone conclusion. “In Poland, there was a very clear competition between opposing political projects of the right and the left – notes De Seu – and there was a perception of a clear choice between a completely different opposition and policies, which led To increase participation.

According to Orsina, director of the School of Government at Luis University in Rome, this is “an important change. A change in the political sphere, between the popular movement, identity and democracy, where politics in Europe takes place globally.” This affects and weakens the conservatives, who have already been weakened as a result of Vox and the impossibility of forming a center-right government in Spain. This also affects Meloni’s strategy: his group is weakening while the Identity and Democracy Party, “the group to which Salvini belongs, appears to be getting stronger. This will also call on Meloni to change the strategy.”

As for Europe, according to Arcena, “this vote may remove an important element of tension and make European governance more linear.” “It strengthens the Popular Party and gives it a rather important impetus – continues Professor Orsina – and this suggests that, for the next Parliament, we will work more on expanding the so-called current majority than on the hypothesis of a conservative popular government “agreement”. Ursula’s majority is in the direction of “Melonie. This will open up space for Melonie, but it will also force her to make choices.”