Weather: First forecast for the Christmas period

Analysis of weather forecasts and potential climate impacts in December

We recently discussed atmospheric dynamics in depth, with particular emphasis on… Polar vortex And about the possible weather and climate impacts that could occur in December.

The polar vortex and global warming can affect Christmas weather

Stratospheric global warming and its effects

You may have read a detailed analysis of Stratospheric warmingThis is a phenomenon that is about to happen. This dynamic deserves special attention, as it can have a significant impact on the month’s climate. ​There is no doubt that the stratosphere plays a crucial role in seasonal forecasts, which is why we will continue to monitor it closely.

Hypothesis⁢ For the Christmas holiday

With these hypotheses, we can begin to formulate some hypotheses for the upcoming Christmas holiday. Stratospheric dynamics take time to show their effects, and a weakening of the polar vortex may only become apparent after several weeks. In Europe, for example, we could see these effects between Christmas and early 2024.

Expectations and uncertainties

It is important to emphasize that we are talking about hypotheses, not confirmed facts. Therefore, everything that is written may not come true. However, so far our forecasts have proven to be “fairly accurate,” so if we’re predicting cold weather during the holiday season, it’s because there are several elements that support that statement. Let’s talk about Arctic coldSo don’t expect freezing temperatures, which may only arrive in the latter part of the season.

Possibility of snow falling at low altitudes

Conditions could be ideal for snowfall at lower elevations, and given the trends of the last two winters, this would indeed be a remarkable achievement.

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Future updates

Let’s not move too far ahead in time. We invite you to follow the frequent updates we will publish. These updates will confirm or deny our hypotheses, which seem to be gaining more and more elements in their favour. Will it be enough? We’ll find out. Atmospheric and stratospheric dynamics can certainly have a significant impact on weather conditions in December.


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