Why, According to Bush Strategist, Trump Now “Can Lose the Race He Was Winning”: Behind Harris’ Bypass

In the latest poll
New York TimesIn addition to having a slight lead nationally, Kamala Harris is also ahead of Donald Trump. Three situations in the balance that can make a difference – November 5: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

“Trump may lose the race he was on the verge of winning three weeks ago.” The verdict comes from Karl Rove: the Republican strategist who was the architect of George W. Bush's victories. I sum up the situation according to Rove. Kamala is not winning the votes of independents or anti-Trump Republicans. However, she is motivating her party's voters who have lost confidence in Joe Biden.

“For months,” Rove notes, “Democrats were less enthusiastic than Republicans. Now the situation has reversed. 88% of Democrats are enthusiastic about Kamala Harris, while only 82% of Republicans are enthusiastic about Trump.” Victory will go to those who do their best on two fronts: increasing voter turnout among their base; and winning over independent voters who are still undecided.

The undecided independents are now few and far between, and the estimates cited by Rove range from 1.8% to a maximum of 5%. They are few but they can be crucial. “The ability to inspire a party’s loyal base while also convincing independents is the hallmark of political heroes. Neither Trump nor Harris deserves that definition. But each just needs to do a better job than his opponent. And today she seems more capable of doing that.”

How does Trump respond? He alternates between appealing to certain types of voters and attacks on the political history of the Harris-Walz duo. In the first category is a proposal to cut taxes on tips and pensions. A chorus of criticism has drowned out these two innovations: populism, demagoguery, and fiscal irresponsibility.

When it comes to populism, demagoguery, and damage to public finances, Biden is a hero: one of the craziest actions taken by his administration (with the support of his vice president) was to cancel college student debt: vote-swap, socially unfair, and extremely costly for student taxpayers.

By proposing to exempt Erbiff's tips, Trump confirms the Republican Party's transformation into a political force for the working classes: In America, tips are a component of the wages of the new working class in the service sector (waiters, delivery drivers, Uber drivers, etc.). As for exempting pensions from the IRV, there is an old economic argument in favor here, the principle according to which the same income cannot be taxed twice. The pension, in a purely contributory Social Security system like the US one, is already taxed upon receipt of the salary. True, it is populist: Trump is going after the most powerful lobby in America, the American Association of Retired Persons (AARP), which represents the growing army of retirees.

The Democratic promise of providing social welfare to illegal immigrants who have never paid any contribution is no less populist.; or Kamala's support for her proposal in California to compensate African Americans as victims of slavery (regardless of whether they were actually descendants of slaves, and in a state where slavery did not exist; moreover, by financing the compensation from taxes on the resident population who are descendants of waves of poor immigrants such as Italians, Irish, and Mexicans).

Another issue Trump will try to pin on Kamala is her repeated proposal to nationalize all of American health care. Public health care already exists in America, consisting of Medicare for retirees and Medicaid for the less well off. It works poorly, like other national health systems from Canada to Europe. Those with private insurance—and that’s a large portion of working-class Americans—stick with it because it works better. And the proposal to nationalize all health care would lose votes among workers.

These are the attack points that Trump will try to exploit to get back on top. But that doesn’t mean he’s disciplined and focused. His nature will lead him to utter unjustified insults and vulgar insults. The fact that he is now the old man in the race also has a heavy impact. He has responded to the attack with determination, but he does not have the same energy as he did in 2016.