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Parliamentary Budget Office: from the Russian gas bloc to 2.8 points of GDP less in 2022 and 3.8 in 2023

Any disruption to natural gas supplies by Russia “will have potentially significant repercussions on the Italian economy.” Italy’s GDP may fall between 0.7 and 2.8 percentage points in 2022 and between 1.5 and 3.8 percentage points the following day.

The scenario is contained in a note from the Parliamentary Budget Office (UPB) on the economic situation for August, which includes estimates by private and institutional analysts, both national and international. The Parliamentary Budget Office explains that the macroeconomic picture of the Italian economy “is surrounded by a very high level of uncertainty, in the face of the possibility of various adverse scenarios, particularly in the markets for raw materials and global trade”.

“The main danger – emphasizes Upb – is geopolitical tensions with Russia, in particular with regard to the supply of natural gas to Europe, the possible cessation of which will have significant repercussions in 2023.”

In the box containing projected exercise assumptions and gas supply scenarios, consumer prices are assumed to rise between 1.3 and 1.5 percentage points this year and between 2.0 and 6.3 percentage points in 2023.

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