In recent weeks, Russia’s decision plural Provoked tens of thousands of soldiers near the Ukrainian border, as it really happened last April, concerns about a possible invasion of Ukraine or its eastern part, currently disputed between the Ukrainian government and pro-Russian militias. But compared to previous months, when there was ultimately no invasion, this time around fears have increased: As US newspapers reported, US intelligence now believes that the possibility of an invasion is tangible, although not sure.

According to the Ukrainian government, the soldiers that Russia has accumulated on the border with Ukraine are about to 114mil (92 thousand on land and the rest in air and sea vehicles), located in the north, east and south of Donbass, which is the region of eastern Ukraine and on the border with Russia where the unilaterally proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk are located. This is the Ukrainian territory occupied by pro-Russian separatists, to which Russia already mobilized tens of thousands of soldiers in April.

However, Russia’s intentions are unclear, and the build-up of troops on the border could have other purposes, such as controlling only certain regions, destabilizing the current (increasingly anti-Russian) Ukrainian government or testing the West’s opposition with a show of force.

The deployment of Russian soldiers on the border with Ukraine worried the Ukrainian government and many Western governments last April, but there is a new element this year, because there are more Russian soldiers, to me The The New York TimesBetter armed.

According to international newspapers, this time the US intelligence was going to share with the European allies a series of details and hypotheses about the possible plans of Russia. Provide more details about it Bloomberg, which talks about a multi-point ground invasion, with the support of the Air Force. according to financial timesConcern about the possibility of an invasion highest since 2014The year Russia invaded Crimea and annexed it to the southeast of Ukraine.

Tensions in eastern Ukraine They never finished: The Russian army and separatist militias have killed nearly 14,000 Ukrainian soldiers and have blocked access to the area on several occasions by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin He said in the past few days Not wanting to invade Ukraine, he has already argued that it is the Western media that are raising the tension: once again, analysts and observers do not have a unanimous opinion of what his true intentions are.

According to some analyzes, Russia is already planning to invade Ukraine. And from this opinion, among others, Gustave Grissel from the Study Center European Council on Foreign RelationsSpeaking about the movements of Russian soldiers and their military exercises on the border, Grisel said that Russia is not just a show of force, but tests for completing the occupation of the Donbass region, which is seen as incomplete after the annexation of Crimea and the Minsk Agreement. 2015 that ended the conflict thanks to some unstable concessions. Grisel does not rule out that Russia will go further.

According to other opinions, How is that By Emma Ashford from The Study Center Atlantic CouncilA military invasion of Ukraine is unlikely: Although tensions between the European Union and Russia are higher now than they were in April, it is believed that an invasion of Ukraine (the second largest country on the European continent) would not be a realistic goal, and that Russia would rather aim to Strengthen its control only in certain areas, perhaps by opening a ride It is controlled by the Russians between the Crimea and the Russian border.

Another hypothesis is that Russia aims to destabilize and weaken the current Ukrainian government, as it does for years And with different strategies, perhaps to advance one inauguration more favorable to Russia: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, elected in 2019, gradually took on more hostile attitudes toward Russia, and is gradually getting closer to the United States, Especially with the Joe Biden administration.

The eventual deployment of Russian soldiers to the Ukrainian border may be a show of force, and an attempt by Putin to test Russia’s Western opposition to the extent to which the United States and the European Union are prepared to step in to defend the country.

As in April, the United States demonstrated, at least in words, its willingness to intervene in the defense of Ukraine. Things are different for European countries: Putin caught them in their moment of greatest weakness, for two main reasons. On the other hand, due to the vacuum in which the European leadership is experiencing, due to the imminent termination of the term of Angela Merkel, Putin’s main interlocutor in the union. On the other hand, because due to the current energy crisis, European countries are more dependent than ever on Russian gas supplies, and it would be inappropriate for them to start a confrontation (even if only diplomatic) with Russia for defense. Ukraine.

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