US Elections, From Pennsylvania to Arizona, 7 States in the Balance: Harris and Trump are Two Points Away

From our correspondent
NEW YORK – The US presidential election is now approaching: 71 days left until Election Day on November 5thWhile those who vote by mail will have their first ballots mailed as early as Sept. 6 and in some states like Pennsylvania, they can be requested and voted on as early as Sept. 16. To reach the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the White House, pollsters believe there are seven true swing states that will decide the election on Nov. 5: Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), Michigan (15) Wisconsin (10) Georgia (16) Arizona (11) Nevada (6) North Carolina (16). In all seven, the distance between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, whoever is in the lead 2 percentage points Or less, according to the average of polls over the past month calculated by RealClearPolitics. Harris leads in Michigan and Wisconsin (by 2% and 1%, respectively), while Trump leads in the other five states, but in Pennsylvania, for example, he has a lead of just 0.2%, according to the same source. If Harris maintains her lead in Michigan and Wisconsin and manages to take Pennsylvania, she will have exactly 270 electoral votes and win. The number of possible combinations for both opponents is striking: Even the swing states in the South and Southwest are in play. In Arizona, Trump has a 0.2% lead in voting intentions; in North Carolina, he has a 0.9% lead.

Robert Kennedy Jr.'s Retirement and the Unknown

One of the questions is the effect Robert Kennedy Jr. RetirementWho endorsed Trump and said he would remove his name from the “10 most controversial states.” Almost no one believes there are 10: Kennedy did not specify which states he was talking about but he may have added to the seven already mentioned. New Hampshire, Virginia and the disputed Nebraska TerritoryIn swing states, Kennedy gets 4% to 5% of the vote, when independent candidates are also taken into account, according to RealClearPolitics and The RealClearPolitics Foundation. New York Times.and A margin that could theoretically make a difference.like a needle between the two candidates. Kennedy has been taking votes away from Trump above all else: Pew found that his voters mostly identified themselves as independents (74%), but of those, 40% leaned Republican and just 26% Democratic. Still, many voters in general are not very enthusiastic about going to the polls. Many pollsters suggest that he doesn’t actually have the votes to take him to Trump, but others disagree that with such narrow margins in the seven swing states that will decide the election, Kennedy’s current pool is wider than the distance between Trump and Harris.

I have already printed the ballots and bets.

Victory in both Arizona and Georgia was decided by less than 12,000 votes in 2020; in Wisconsin by less than 23,000 votes in the past two elections. Much will depend on Kennedy's promise to remove his name from the ballot.He has started the process of doing so in Arizona and Pennsylvania, but it is not certain that at this stage of the race he will be able to do so in all of them. Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin say it is too late. In Michigan, Kennedy will emerge as the candidate of the Natural Law Party, whose chairman now says he feels “taken advantage of.” In North Carolina, 30 of 100 counties have already printed ballots. Also keep an eye on the bookmakers' predictions.Because they have correctly predicted the last nine presidential elections (the only exception being Trump in 2016). According to RealClearPolitics, the day before Joe Biden dropped out of the race, Trump – based on the average of various online bookmakers – had a 61% chance of winning. Since Harris became the nominee, the Democratic Party has recovered. Now the contenders are close. And who is ahead changes almost every day.