Former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris in four of the five swing states, according to a new poll from Emerson College and The Hill ahead of the November 5 presidential election. The poll shows Trump and Harris tied at 47 percent in Wisconsin. However, the Republican candidate still leads in Arizona (49-44 percent), Georgia (48-46), Michigan (46-45) and Pennsylvania (48-46). But those are unassailable distances for the vice president, who only entered the Democratic nomination race last Sunday, July 21, after incumbent President Joe Biden dropped out of the race.

The poll also shows that Harris’s support is higher than Biden’s a month ago in all five swing states: by four points in Arizona and Wisconsin, by five points in Georgia, and by three points in Michigan and Pennsylvania. According to Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, Harris appears to have already regained the votes the Democratic Party lost after the disastrous presidential debate between Biden and Trump on June 27. “The numbers,” Kimball notes, “reflect similar levels of support to Biden’s March.” Will the current occupant of the White House, No. 2, be able to do so? That’s the hottest question of the summer.