'We've got 1,028 days left before it's too late': ecologist Fusaro explains what's right about King's theory of climate change

It happened during the last tennis tournament Roland Garros. A girl, Alizee, 22, chained herself to the camp net, wearing a T-shirt with disturbing and slightly ambiguous writing:We have 1,028 days left(We have 1,028 days left), referring to the British chemist’s theory, David Kingwhich refers toThe urgent need for action on climate change Before it’s too late. So within 1028 days. Overly catastrophic expectations or is something justified? “I can respond to you with another provocation, even worse: What if there are 999 left?‘ answers the doctor Lina Fusaroan ecologist, a scientist on the effects of environmental stress on vegetation and a researcher in Cnr (National Research Council), Institute for Bioeconomics (CNR-IBE).

Doctor Fusaro, better explain it to us.

“Progressive knowledge of the processes and mechanisms that determine the functioning of the environmental parts (water, soil, air), of which the climate system is a part, allows us to use the data that we have recorded in the past 50 to 60 years, or even back in time, to clarify future scenarios using forecast models. We are talking about very complex models, as well as the environment in which we want to know the fate of … “.

What questions arise from these analyzes?

“For example, in 2030, will we still have enough water to maintain our daily habits unchanged? Will my granddaughter still be able to discover the thrill of reaching the top of Mont Blanc by crossing a glacier? Will we still be able to admire the beauty of tropical forests?”

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Not really encouraging…

“I have made these examples on the ground to try to translate this bleak deadline highlighted by Alizée’s work into proactive reflections on how areas of our lives can be irreparably altered by a changing climate. Going back to the 1028-day theory, I cannot explain the considerations or evidence that They are based on because, referring to international databases used by the scientific community, I have not found specific information about them. I can assume that this number of days has been accurately estimated starting from future scenarios generated by forecast models. But more than this specific number, I would like to talk about the consequences of ongoing climate change on the biosphere that are already very noticeable and irreversible in many regions of the world. There is an urgent need for awareness and guidance for future choices about the urgency of action being transmitted in an even more urgent manner by an entire generation.”

What are the most reliable predictions about the urgency of climate action before it is too late?

“I highly recommend everyone and everyone to consult Training and discussion site On the topic of climate change and climate change and the topic of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Also in its Italian version (Intergovernmental panel on climate change). They are two information channels with excellent infographics and scientifically validated data to understand what has happened to our climate and what we are going to meet. In particular, the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change indicates that the temperature in the period 2001-2020 was 0.99 °C higher than in the reference period 1850-1900. So the issue is not about simple climate changes, but about clear long-term trends. This increase in temperatures has an impact on many ecosystems, it will change the shape of our landscapes, our forests and green areas inside and outside cities, losing many of the benefits that nature, at its best, can provide us. Our food system and consumption would likely be disturbed if we thought the agricultural sector would be severely affected: the distribution and amount of rain changes, resulting in frequent and prolonged droughts that alternate with extreme rain events. The urgency of action is now dictated by the fact that, due to the complex characteristics of the climate system, there is no on / off button and the serious consequences of the increase in global and local temperatures will not stop immediately . If we succeed in completely eliminating greenhouse gas emissions within the next year.”

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What should citizens demand from governments? What actions do you think it is necessary to focus on with a higher priority?

“In my opinion, an important step at the community level is to implement a profound change in the educational paradigm. Train us to develop ecological wisdom, an ecological idea that, through knowledge of nature and its functional processes, allows us to communicate more with it to develop ever greater skills for its care and preservation. Actively. Starting with environmental education in primary school, teaching already in the MIUR Guidelines, continuing to support active citizenship projects at the local level that allow changing habits and using good practices to reduce resource consumption.”

Some concrete examples?

“Following a more sustainable diet through small gestures such as eating local foods and respecting the seasonality of produce, shifting toward low-impact commuting, and demanding more space for public transport, bike paths, and intra-mobility. This first-person engagement is, in my view, necessary to drive citizens to demand action. More assertive than governments, because it is certain that the deep climate crisis we are going through no longer leaves us room to postpone the choices of moving to another model of production and consumption.”


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