Zach Crawford
(ANSA) – ROME, Nov. 28 – If China did not have strict restrictive measures on circulation and travel, it would have as many as 630,000 new COVID-19 infections every day without more effective vaccines and specific treatments, accordingly. to a computational model developed by Peking University mathematicians for the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Ccdcp), which has been cited by some media outlets, such as Reuters and The Guardian.
According to media reports, Chinese scientists based their figures on the spread of the coronavirus in August in countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Spain, France and Israel, assuming the same countermeasures adopted by those countries are adopted. countries in China. The worst case, which is more than 630 thousand cases per day, indicates the hypothesis that Beijing chooses the anti-Covid policy that is practiced in the United States. It will drop to 454,000 if you adopt the procedures in force in France and over 275,000 if the model is British.
“The estimates reveal a tangible possibility of a massive epidemic that would burden the health system unsustainably,” said the report, cited by the Guardian newspaper.
“From our findings – following up on the recommendations of Chinese scientists – comes a clear warning that, for the time being, we are not ready to adopt ‘re-opening’ strategies, which are based solely on the premise that vaccines stimulate herd immunity, as is the case in some Western countries claiming it “. (Dealing).
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Laurence Malcom
