Here's the data. Kamala Harris shows

Right now there is no dramatic break that was expected. The attack on Trump did not give him a very big immediate advantage in the polls. The Donald is definitely in the lead. In 6 of the 7 key states that are likely to decide the outcome of the election. Spoiler: Countries to watch are: Wisconsin, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.

Trump polls Biden who leads in 2024 presidential polls? Leading Donald but only by one point. Kamala Harris shows

Of course, we still have to wait to understand how the Butler shooting 72 hours ago reflects voting intentions, but when percentages are always taken with a grain of salt, something emerges that does not look like a wild and dramatic fluctuation. We can certainly observe the movements of public opinion after the June 27 televised debate, positive for Trump, disastrous for Biden. It should also be said that, apart from the failed attack, the former president also put together a series of positive events that made him rise in the polls: the aforementioned televised debate and also the Supreme Court ruling on presidential immunity. Now that Vance is selected as his running mate, can we see a faster race? No. That jump is not there at the moment. But we must keep in mind that polls can always underestimate the support for her rivals.

Trump after the attack, Milwaukee stage: Lara Trump will speak, as will her former rival Nikki Haley. Melania and Ivanka exit

First survey after the shooting

The first Morning Consult poll after the Butler shooting showed a very small sample (2,045 voters) with Trump leading Joe Biden by just one percentage point: 46% versus 45% for the current president. The poll has a margin of error of 2 percentage points. The data was collected Friday through Sunday, so most of the responses were recorded before Saturday’s assassination attempt on Trump during his campaign rally in Pennsylvania. Trump is thus ahead of the incumbent president but also of his running mate, Kamala Harris (yes, as the New York Times revealed, Joe Biden’s campaign managers have been polling voters for at least a week, behind the scenes, to find out where Kamala Harris is and how the vice president might fare against Donald Trump).

In fact, the results of this poll reveal that Trump's lead has narrowed slightly compared to the previous poll conducted between July 12 and 14, which put Trump ahead by two percentage points, at 44%, compared to 42% for Biden.

Polls, Wisconsin Tie

Very similar data is also in the results published by the Washington Post, which will release from today national and state poll averages, with comparisons to the last presidential elections. With a margin of error of 3.5 Results matter. truly Trump and Biden tied in Wisconsin, where the Republican Party convention is being held.

Polls say Particularly close candidates also in Michigan and Pennsylvania. (Always with a margin of error of 3.5 points.) That means a Trump or President Biden win is possible. In other states, Trump’s advantage is even clearer:

North Carolina+5

Nevada +5

Arizona +5

Georgia +6

What might change between now and Election Day? The Economy

The paper warns that the performance of the economy still plays a very important role. With cultural values ​​and political orientations, the compass of the ballot box is still inflation, work and the spending power of citizens. If the economy performs better – as we read in the Labor Party – this will translate into points for Biden and will reassure the progressive trend that has been and continues to build the campaign on the old Clinton-era electoral adage: “It's the economy, stupid.”

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