It will be on Sunday 26th September Federal elections More uncertain than ever in Germany, with this race for the chancellery that you seeItaly Under the guise of a spectator interested in looking at the effects a vote can have on society’s politics.
With Angela Merkel choosing not to re-run after sixteen years of continued dominance, this election in Germany is essentially a three-way race: Armin Laschet for the CDU-CSU, Olaf Scholz for the SPD and Annalena Barbock for the Greens.
The Latest polls Elections now indicate that the revived Social Democrats are at the fore, after the CDU-CSU tandem emerged in the leadership strong at the start of the summer, while in the spring the Greens were cited as the number one party.
With the polls closed, parties able to cross the 5% threshold will start Majority negotiationsBut it could take months to reach an agreement.
Angela Merkel He must therefore remain at the helm of the country until at least December, then leave power to the new government that will be critical to the future balance within the EU: from the Stability Pact to the Environmental Transformation, there are several things that could change for Italy depending on who will be the winner of the elections. In Germany.
Germany’s elections: who will be the chancellor?
The purely proportional voting system applied in elections in Germany requires post-vote agreements between political forces to form a majority. Popular Dell CDU-CSUDemocratic Socialists SPD, I gave, I Free, Right AfD and on the left the left.
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For opinion polls, the most likely majority appears to be the “traffic light” formed by the SPD, the Greens and the Liberals, with Olaf Schulz The new chancellor as the leader of the most voted party. In theory, there could be figures for a government that all shifted to the left with Lenke replacing the liberals.
In the words of Olaf Schultz, it will be difficult to repeat great alliance With CDU-CSU: Armin Laschet He could become chancellor only in the event of the dramatic overthrow of the Socialists after an agreement with the Greens and the Liberals. It must be remembered that no party is willing to sit at a table with the right wing of the AfD.
These elections in Germany could lead to a powerful adjustment in the balance of power within the Bundestag, a “shift” that will inevitably have repercussions in Brussels as well, where the Christian Democrat holds the presidency of the European Commission. Ursula von der Leyen.
Just to give an idea of ​​possible changes, Schultz, the current finance minister, suggests one in his platform inheritance 1% on the wealth of the richest and wealthy the end of austerity To get out of the crisis caused by the epidemic.
All this while in Europe, where Berlin has a lot of weight, there is a heated debate about it Stability Pact Currently suspended, due to covid, until December 31, 2022. Due to the growth of greens, until environmental transformation It will be one of the main themes of German politics in the coming years.
Italy and the Stability Pact
The teams on the field in the match in terms of the stability agreement are always the same: in terms of me economy countries, headed by the Netherlands, while on the other hand from southern Europe includingItaly. In the middle is Germany, the referee for this match and the classic Libra judge.
frugal in 2023 The rules of the Stability Pact would not have to be changed, but at most there could be more flexibility to allow member states to fall within the parameters of the treaty. This application has been signed by Austria, the Netherlands, Finland, Denmark, Slovakia, Latvia, Sweden and the Czech Republic.
Instead, Italy, France and other countries that are more difficult due to Covid, would like to review the agreement since it will take a long time to return to standards after the huge deficit in recent months.
In the Germany It will be a job to mediate between the two situations, but for now it’s all just waiting to know what the outcome of the federal election will be: the chancellorship challenge will also be daunting in Brussels, while Rome can cheer Scholz compared to the more rigid Laschet.
Other games to be played in Europe
In the next few years, Brussels will not only play the Stability Pact game. The recovery fund Because of the pandemic, it will be her fate above all environmental transformation Which is a major part of every plan submitted by the various member states.
The obvious presence of gave In the next majority to be formed in the Bundestag, it must ensure Germany’s support for the green change decided by Europe, which many have recently questioned in light of the problems of this transformation.
With Olaf Schultz increasingly anticipating the chancellorship, the Union’s center of gravity could shift more to the left Thus quenching relations with the Siege of Visegrad, particularly on the question of Poland and Hungary.
However, it is also unlikely that there will be room in the next government the left: If the extreme left does not soften its stance on foreign policy, see NATO’s farewell request, it will be inevitable to remain in opposition.
Surely it will come out weaker than this election Ursula von der Leyen That without the support of Angela Merkel and with the CDU in opposition, he would inevitably lose much of his power.
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