Frontex’s dark prophecy about landings: “It is bound to increase”

In his latest report, frontex It was not limited to the certification of the case emergency on the immigration front. On the contrary, this also sounded alarm bells for the coming months. In fact, the Warsaw-based agency has no doubts: in the second half of 2023 and in 2024, mainly due to the situation in the Middle East and in the countries of departure of migrants, in Europe (and in Italy Above all) it will be necessary to expect others migration waves. This warning appears to urge governments and the European Commission to act quickly to avoid the specter of new and more dangerous emergencies.

Frontex report

In Italy, the 100,000 mark has already been exceeded in the number of irregular arrivals. A non-secondary psychological threshold in the analysis of the direction of migratory flows. In fact, in the past eight years, only three times have the numbers reached triple zeros: in 2016, in 2017, and in 2022. And as of August of this year, According to the Ministry of the Interior, 114,526 migrants have already arrived along our coasts. To give an idea of ​​the increase compared to 2022, the figure for the same period last year stopped at 58,251.

In Frontex’s report there is no doubt that direction Will not stop. Thus, at the end of the year, Italy and Europe will have to deal with record numbers. But the real news comes from the fact that, according to the European agency, the trend observed in 2023 will also be evident in 2024.

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“Developments on the ground – as stated in the Frontex report – in a number of countries of origin and transit, driven by global macroeconomic factors (particularly persistent inflation and global recession), will have a negative impact on the social and economic conditions of large populations and migrants.” An increase in migration flows towards Europe will be expected.

In short, the deterioration of the security situation and the depletion of the economies of many Middle Eastern countries as a result of the hyperinflationary spiral does not bode well. “For the period 2023-2024 – the document continues – the Eastern Mediterranean and Central Mediterranean routes are likely to see greater migration activity and a higher proportion of total migration flows towards the EU’s external borders.” And this is the trajectory that worries the governments of the countries bordering the Mediterranean: the emergencies they have faced in recent months will continue to increase as well as the New Year.

Central and eastern Mediterranean routes were targeted

In fact, the scenario envisioned by Frontex was already known to the Italian government itself. Palazzo Chigi is well aware of what could happen on the migration front in 2023 and 2024. Viminale has taken into account the fact that without the intervention of bad weather, hundreds of boats would take off from Tunisia and Libya. Georgia Meloni It is no coincidence that he always spoke of “long-term” politics. The executive branch has worked on agreements with in recent months Tunisia And Tripoli Able to make an impact in the coming months, knowing that it is impossible to reverse the current trend in a few weeks.

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In any case, the Frontex report is significant precisely because concerns about the immediate future are spelled out in black and white in the document. Especially with regard to the two routes that include Italy, that is, the Central Mediterranean route and the Eastern Mediterranean route. “Part of this phenomenon will likely be the increased use of lanes from Turkey, Lebanon and Syria to the central Mediterranean, which will be a nuance between the eastern and central Mediterranean routes: this phenomenon will be exacerbated,” Frontex analysts wrote. By increasing air connections between the two geographic regions, which has already led to the registration of migrants, such as Syrians, traditionally found only in the eastern Mediterranean, on the routes from Libya.

This means that even those coming from the Middle East will benefit from the corridors to Libya and, from there, to Italy. To these corridors it will be necessary to add the “standard” corridors relating to the Sahel region. The report concludes that “the flows to the north from Libya and Tunisia – the report concludes – will be joined by an increasing number of migrants from North Africa and from various sub-Saharan countries, whose countries face worrying economic, security, human rights and climate prospects for them.” 2023/2024″.

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