Morgan Stanley sees US recession risk at 50% - El Financiero

Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman said he sees the risk of a US recession at nearly 50%, even as he focuses more on non-financial risks, including the potential for cyber attacks.

“It was inevitable that this inflation would not be temporary, and it was inevitable that the Fed would act faster than anticipated,” he said at the Morgan Stanley Finance, Payments and Investment Committee’s US Conference on Monday. “There was a legitimate risk of stagnation. I would have thought it was about 30 percent. You might be closer to 50 percent now, not 100%. You have to be a little careful.”

Morgan Stanley has strong liquidity and capitaland a strong credit profile, Gorman said, adding that his focus is more on non-financial risks such as data stability, internet and operations risks “given our place in the world and some of the geopolitical uncertainty associated with that.”

The CEO said the fallout could inflict some “potentially fatal damage” to some institutions, even though US banks are in very good shape.

Encouraging data for the United States, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development

The latest OECD composite leading indicators show a decline in most member countries, with exceptions such as Japan and the United States. Among advanced economies, Mexico is among emerging economies.

The organization’s index, which is linked to economic growth, shows that a slowdown could occur in the next six to nine months.

“With high inflation and a sharp decline in consumer confidence, indicators point to a loss of growth momentum in the Eurozone as a whole, Including Germany, France and Italy, as well as in the United Kingdom and Canada. In turn, they continue to point to stable growth in the United States and Japan.”

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The indicators are intended to forecast cyclical fluctuations in economic activity over the next six to nine months based on a variety of forward-looking indicators, such as order books; Confidence Indicators Building Permits; Long-term interest rates, new car registrations, and more.

With information from Leticia Hernandez.


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