The scenario in Parliament according to opinion polls
Opinion poll numbers (248 deputies out of 460 seats in the Sejm, the lower house of the Polish parliament) do not give potential allies of the opposition led by Donald Tusk the three-fifths majority needed to be able to override the veto that could oppose its leader Andrzej Duda, a member of the Law and Justice Party. Regarding the thresholds, an informed source in Warsaw states that “La Sinistra” – despite being a “coalition” between two formations (“New Left” and “Sinestra Insimi”) – registered this time as a party, and therefore the relevant threshold is lower: it is 5 %, not 8% (allocated for campaign rallies such as “Third Way”), which the Ipsos exit poll put at 8.6%. Thus, there is less risk that its 30 seats will go to PiS, undermining the state-based redistribution outcome provided by the Hundt method that gives the winning party no more than coalition votes. threshold. The Left (Lewka) made the mistake of presenting itself as an electoral coalition in the 2015 elections, remaining outside parliament and facilitating the victory of Jarosław Kaczyński’s Law and Order Party.
Record turnout is highest ever: 72.9%
Tvn24 reported that the Election Commission indicated that the turnout in today’s Polish parliamentary elections reached 72.9%, a record number that is ten points higher than the previous figure (62.7%) recorded in the first democratic Polish elections in 1989.
European People’s Party: “Poland chose the rule of law and Europe”
“The majority of Poles voted for the change.
Kaczynski (Pace): “Days of struggle lie ahead”
“The question before us – admitted Kaczynski, head of the PiS – is whether it is possible to turn this success into another mandate for our government. We do not know this at the moment, but we must know that whether we will be in power or in opposition, we will continue this project and will not We allow Poland to be betrayed.”
Donald Tusk declares victory
Donald Tusk declared victory in the Polish elections. The former Prime Minister, President of the European Council, and leader of the Civic Platform party declared: “It is the end of dark times, it is the end of the dominance of PiS, we have done it.” He chanted in front of his supporters: “Democracy has triumphed, freedom has triumphed, beloved Poland has triumphed.” This day will be remembered in history as a bright day, the rebirth of Poland.”
Majority of opposition seats
Looking at the seats, according to the Ipsos poll, the three opposition parties led by Donald Tusk will control the majority of the lower house of the Polish Parliament with 248 deputies compared to the 200 deputies that the PiS will get by uniting with the right wing. Extremists of the Confederacy. According to the exit poll of voters from the Ipsos Institute and published by Tvn24, the “Law and Justice” party led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski will obtain 200 seats, that is, more than the 163 seats that the “Civic Coalition” led by Tusk will obtain. However, they will be able to rely on 55 deputies from the “Third Way” coalition and 30 deputies from the “Left”, which opinion polls revealed give the confederation only 12 seats.
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