Weather: Super El Niño forecast is coming

phenomenon Nino It revolutionizes average global temperatures, both oceanic and atmospheric. Let’s take a look at the current state of oceanic anomalies as of June 25th.

Ocean anomaly analysis

Current data for anomalies in the area El Niño 3.4.1located in the central Pacific Ocean, shows a value of +0.916°C compared to the norm, which is a sign of a rather weak El Niño, currently still below +1.0°C.

However, the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean remains the warmest. The sea adjacent to Peru shows a strong anomaly of +2.44°C.

Anomalies in the North Atlantic Ocean

Another important anomaly concerns the North Atlantic Ocean, which has very high temperatures in its eastern region, near the coasts of North Africa and Spain, up to England and Ireland. Instead, the Labrador Current, which flows along the east coast of the United States, is cooler than normal.

This anomaly, which is currently +1.065°C, is the highest it has ever been reached in at least the past 40 years, despite a slight downward trend.

The effect of anomalies on climate

From a climatic point of view, the consequences of these anomalies are not yet fully understood. The most important anomaly is the North Atlantic Ocean, which creates major problems for international climatologists, with anomaly peaks of +5°C off the coast of France and the British Isles.

Cause of anomalies and predictions

The reasons for these anomalies are debatable. An emerging El Niño certainly plays a role, but some blame reduced production of sulfate dust by commercial ships on pollution control regulations. This dust reflects part of the solar radiation incident on ocean waters.

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On the other hand, others talk about the “runaway greenhouse effect” caused by carbon dioxide emissions from human activities. However, from the climatic point of view in the peninsula, the effect is neutral, the summer proceeds rather calm in terms of temperatures, slightly above normal, while the precipitation is generally above average.

The BOM forecast, the Australian Center for Meteorological Research, announces the arrival of a ‘Super El Niño’, with surface temperature variations equal to more than +3°C from the norm, and thus capable of revolutionizing much of the world’s climate.


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