Frederic Dabi: “The second round confirms the surprise of the first” – Politics

All outgoing presidents were re-elected. Does this mean that the ancient world has a bright future ahead?

There was a kind of local Yalta between the left block and the right block. It is a form of municipality to vote these districts where the outgoing left and right have obtained the best possible results. Massive abstention first affects the RN. The other big loser is LREM who performed less than he did in the first round. Many voters voted beneficial, so presidential majority candidates often receive lower scores than in the first round. En Marche was a ratiboise.

How much do these findings complicate Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen’s 2022 mission?

We have never seen such a seal between the domestic political sphere dominated by the parties of the old world, such as the Republicans and Socialists, and the national political sphere with Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, it is an electoral bulldozer with the presidential election. These temporary elections mark the end of an unprecedented cycle with a disconnect in the balance of power at the local and national levels. The question that arises on the evening of legalization by the ballot boxes of Laurent Waquis, Valérie Pécres and Xavier Bertrand is whether or not these two sealed worlds will meet. Will there be a dynamic of amplification as we saw earlier, for example Segolene Royal the grand winner in the 2004 regional elections who then became the best to represent the Socialist Party in 2007?

The abstinence rate in the second round – 66% – is almost as huge as in the first (66.7%) …

We’re still in a wave of abstinence that we’ve never seen. The number one party in France is abstentions: some 31,240,000 French did not go to the polls. Above all, this somewhat continuity with the first round marks a break with past regional elections. Traditionally, in a two-round intermediate ballot, people vote the second more than the first. In 2015, the abstention rate dropped by 9.5 points. The second round perfectly confirms the amazement and shock of the first round and breaks with the previous joint.

Politicians of all stripes have increased calls to vote for a week. And nothing has changed. Does this reflect their impotence?

It is a kind of “everything for it”, which reflects a detachment, an inability to train and direct the French. Over the past week, there have been calls for mobilization, and all politicians have played the “I need you” card. All discussions revolved around the exhaustion of democracy. We have tried to dramatize the issues, but it is in vain. On Sundays at 5pm, the place we voted the most outside of Corsica, was Baka. This is the only second-round duel with a more clearly defined stake. But even in those places where there was a very clear sense of voting, there was no shock to participation, no reversal of the trend of abstentions. Abstention becomes a kind of choice for the French, which is in itself a foregone conclusion to the mood and attitude of public opinion. This is particularly worrying less than ten months before the presidential election. We cannot imagine that this election will not be affected by this twin shock of June 20 and 27.