“It's another try and we all agree. But some statements indicate that this may be the right time. Our Foreign Minister also expressed his confidence in the positive forecasts. And of course the truce raises questions.” This is the comment of General Leonardo Tricarico, former Chief of Staff of the Air Force, on the hypothesis of a truce in the conflict in the Middle East.
And talk about questions. any?
“The first concerns the radical part of Netanyahu’s government, especially the two ministers: Ben Gvir and Smotrich, who perhaps, based on their statements, will not tolerate the truce and will leave the government. We will see how consistent they are with their statements or whether it is not a joke, as it often happens to them. “It's a question of seeing how the far right will react and whether they will support the government.”
October 2023, the date of the Hamas attack on Israeli territory, which culminated in a massacre of civilians. Is the agreement being discussed a good agreement?
“It is for Israel and for the entire international community. Let us remember that in the past, for one soldier, Israel liberated more than a thousand Palestinians. In this case, proportionality is not a measure that applies to one indicator or depends on another indicator. It is believed that the demands for the release of the Palestinians are consistent, but Israel should not find it difficult to hand over hundreds of detainees in exchange for the hostages who are still alive.
Are the hostages alive?
“There are many rumours, but we do not know who is being held hostage.
It is not certain that it is all in the hands of Hamas, which does not know whether it can negotiate on behalf of others. The hostages are Hamas's life insurance, because once they are no longer in its hands, it can resume military activities with less precision in striking Israeli targets, as may have already happened.
Then there is Netanyahu.
“For him too, a truce or cessation of hostilities means confrontation. He will face thorough and serious investigations. Many people say that he knew about the October 7th incident, but we have to understand what and under what conditions. According to some sources, there are documents and written reports that reached him. It would be interesting to understand what happened and why the warning signs were ignored. Then there is the part that concerns him individually and the accounts opened with the judiciary. For Netanyahu, cessation of hostilities means coming to terms with his public and private interests.
Do you think it is possible that there will be a rift within Hamas between those in Gaza and those in Qatar?
“Yes, because Qatar’s influence on those on its territory is clear, starting from the top. But this drive belt with zones does not work. It is possible that the indicators issued by Hamas in Qatar will not be fully implemented by Hamas on the ground. A break is possible, but if that is the case, Hamas will not be able to govern and things will become more complicated.
What scenarios do you see after the ceasefire?
“I hope that in Riyadh, where Blinken and other foreign ministers of countries playing a role in this issue are, we can actually start discussing the post-conflict situation, taking into account everyone’s needs. I believe there would be a UN conservatorship, or coalition of the willing, that could create a multinational force dedicated to monitoring reconstruction and the new state structure. It is a transition that could be considered an international guarantee for a broad coalition of countries that have not publicly sided with either of them. The guarantor countries for reconstruction and state building in new Palestine.”
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