Major maneuvers are underway due to The Group of Twenty in mid-November in Indonesia.

Can be held on the sidelines of the Bali Summit The first bilateral summit between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping.

It would be the first ever, in person, since Biden as president of the United States: His election came during a pandemic that limited the leader’s travel and live meetings, and those restrictions on Xi Jinping lasted much longer than Western leaders. In fact, the two of them only heard over the phone. Although there have been previous in-person meetings when Biden was Barack Obama’s deputy.

Relations between China and the United States are worse than after Tiananmen

while Bilateral relations are at an all-time low, at least from the time the two superpowers restored diplomatic relations (the late 1970s). Probably Even the Tiananmen Square massacre did not create such a cold between Beijing and WashingtonAt that time, in 1989, George Bush Sr. was in the White House, who, as a former ambassador to China, wanted to restore as soon as possible a positive relationship with the Chinese leader at the time, Deng Xiaoping. The Tiananmen massacre was followed by Western sanctions, but it was limited to military supplies. And soon after that a kind of golden age will begin in the economic relations between the two countries. Today we still have a long way to go.

Latest clashes: Taiwan, high-tech ban

At least an escalation of tension continues Donald Trump’s dutiesBut the warning signs that emerged most clearly in the final phase of Obama’s presidency were the notable events of recent months. Something pressured Biden to stop him Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan This summer, when the visit took place, he coordinated it Military maneuvers similar to rehearsals for the conquest of the island.

As for Biden, he is dramatically escalating a ban on US technology supplies to China. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi once again condemned the ban as an attempt to contain and crush China’s rise.

Reasons for dialogue

So there will be a bilateral summit in A bad weather.
however The two need to talk to each other. There is certainly hope on the American side that the dialogue will serve to identify areas of competition and conflict, and avoid involuntary road accidents in an already turbulent relationship.

The White House has not completely lost hope that Xi can moderate Putin. In particularUse of nuclear weapons: The Americans are convinced that Beijing has no interest in seeing a precedent set, since the normalization of the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine could lead to Japan and South Korea rushing into the nuclear arsenal. Xi’s call for a visit German chancellor seems to comfort Washington. Xi will remain a loyal ally of Putin, but he can place bets on him.

Separation of the two largest economies in the world

At what point, on the other hand, does the US-China divorce make economic sense? I recommend looking at the large chart published yesterday by the Wall Street Journal, with a series of pointers about the health of globalization. These are historical graphs, their starting point was in 1990. Example: the weight of world trade relative to the GDP of all countries in 1990 was 37%, then began to rise relentlessly, reaching nearly 60% in 2007, now to 52%. This is an indicator of the interdependence of nations, it tells us how much of our wealth is linked to the economies of others.

Therefore, since the crisis of 2008, there has been a downsizing of globalization, and this phenomenon is very partial to date. The real divorce may have just begun.

Other interesting indicators, which contrast with the pervasive culture of the Apocalypse in our world: the proportion of poor people on Earth decreased from 38% in 1990 to 8.4% in 2019. Astonishing progress, unprecedented in human history, from it There is no trace of the poor wailing that we hear every day.

Counterpoint in this data: in 1990 workers were 16% of American employment, today their percentage has halved. Globalization has greatly reduced misery in China and partly also in India, but Blue collar jobs (stable and well-paid) have been destroyed in America.

This article was first published in the World Newsletter, signed by Federico Rambini. to receive it You need to register here